2006 Correction?

Live Blogging The LEH Conference Call, Again

- I am here before the call has begun. This is a miracle. Not washing the shampoo out of my hair saved a significant 30 seconds.

- “This information is…inherently subject to uncertainties…difficult to predict…beyond our control…for more information about what could happen, see Bear Stearns”

- Dick Fuld in the house.

- Fuld: “I am very disappointed with these results. Losing $2.8 billion is unacceptable. This is my responsibility.” At this time, you might be wondering why, then, didn’t I punish myself by firing myself, instead of those two people underneath me? I still need time to ruminate on that one.

- “In hindsight, we made some poor choices.”
BigDaddyCaCayne: that’s what i’m talkin’ about!
DFuld8473: Not now Jim
BigDaddyCaCayne: just sayin’ i feel you brother…my legs, not so much.

- Management Changes: “Joe Gregory stepped down. Joe’s been my partner forever. It was one of the most difficult decisions that he and I had to make together.” More so for him than me, but it all evens out in the end. “You might’ve also seen that Erin Callan stepped down from her role. I respect her. We’re still talking.”

- “2007 was a record year!” He should just read those results.

- “Our strategy of diversifying is working”

- “We’ve got good opportunities— The key is to execute!. We have to got to be closers! We’ve got to close that shit!”

- Turns it over to Ian

- Who’s not speaking into the mic

- Cause I’m hearing nothing

- Hah, his “microphone was off” [laughter]

- Ian is South African! Dick Fuld is a genius. No one pays attention to what’s actually being said when there’s a cute accent talking.

- “Our hedges, which used to kick ass, didn’t do so well this time around”

- Headcount declined by 1900 + 2

- The “dominant theme” in this quarter was “capital raising.” Eroded investor confidence. Diluted shareholder value. Etc, etc etc.

- LEH is still focused on serving clients, and they have an internal yardstick for making sure everything’s up to snuff.

- While Ian reads off the press release, let’s talk about this awesome new feature on the MIKE’S HARD LEMONADE site.

Summer/Fall/Winter 07/08

Dear Mr. Schwartz,

Because of what happened, I’m not going to make it in to work. You might think I’m just enjoying a summer day off in my backyard BBQing, but I’m really not.

I’m not sure if you saw my story on the local news so I’ve enclose the clip below.

Jim

caynenightlynews.JPG

Continue Reading »

How Screwed Is 2006?

Not all of us can escape the consequences of our financial misdeeds the Ken Lay way. Well, technically, that’s not true. Shuffling off our mortal coils is one of those grand financial planning schemes available to the rich and poor alike. But it does seem a bit drastic. Might consider other options first.

Business Week has published its economic forecast for the second half of the year. The report breaks the forecast down into various segments, and gives recommendations of where the strengths might be. Here’s the shorter version.

Housing: Prisons and other places poor people to live might be a good bet.

Finance: Still raking in the dough. Maybe with a slightly shorter rake.

Retail: Rich people sometimes buy stuff just so they can throw it away.

Autos: If you have to ask you obviously haven’t been to a gas station lately.

Energy: See entry for “Autos.”

Tech: You should check out this cool thing called the internet.

Shedding Light on the Second Half [Business Week]

Let’s Do The Time Warp Again

Tardis.jpgLast night after a few too many drinks in one of our usual watering-holes, a friend of DealBreaker turned and asked, “What year is it again?”

“Right. You’re cut off.”

“No. I know its 2006. I’m just trying to figure out what year it is again? Is it 1999, with an internet bubble getting ready to pop again? Is it 1987 and a huge crash is coming? Is it 1997 with another currency crisis looming? Or 1979 with an oil crisis?” he said.

It’s always some year again, we guess. Today TickerSense tells us why it’s probably not 1987 again.

While there are certainly similarities between now and then (falling bond market and weaker dollar), there is one glaring difference between now and 1987 which makes a similar crash unlikely. The market’s run up to now has been modest when compared to the gains leading up to the crash.

And over on The Big Picture, a letter from Ryan Fischer says its not 1994-95 again.

Please, please, I beg of you: quit talking about 1994-995. 2006-07 has no similarities whatsoever — except in your hope.

Does anyone remember what the bond market did in 94-95? Anyone? The yield on 10 yr treasuries went from basically 5.5% at the beginning of 94 to 8% by year end. That being the number the bond market erroneously thought the FED would go to. By the end of 1995 the yield on the 10 yr was back at 5.5% a dramatic easing of financial conditions. And, on cue, assets went wild, housing and consumption caught the wind in their sails coming off the bond market and off Risk ran.

1987 and Now: One Major Difference [TickerSense]

Dear God, Please stop talking about 1994-95 [TheBigPicture]