Fed Using Very Old Valuations For The Term Loan Facility Auction

Perhaps the most surprising discovery we made today was the high value the Federal Reserve is willing to assign to some of the asset classes that have lately been causing so much turmoil in the markets. Even as some banks have said that the value of their CDO portfolios is unknowable and the ratings agencies have been mercilessly—if belatedly—downgrading formerly highly rated debt securities, the Federal Reserve has announced it will pay 85 cents on the dollar for CDOs with no market price available. That sounds like a pretty sweet deal in today’s markets.

It’s almost as if the Fed hadn’t been paying attention to the recent turmoil in credit markets. Don’t they know there is widespread skepticism about even triple A rated debt paper these days?

And, apparently, they haven’t been paying attention. The documentation the Fed has provided for collateral values became effective on September 22, 2006—over one year ago! Aside for some minor changes and the addition of some explanatory material at the bottom of their collateral valuation chart, the spreadsheet has not been changed to reflect the repricing of debt in the market place.

Basically, the Fed is turning back the clock on the CDO market. It’s 2006 all over again, boys and girls.

Comments

Posted by , Dec 12, 2007 4:55PM

carney's posts are smart and relevant. THIS is good dealbreaking.

for those of us in the trenches dealing with this sh*t a renewed sense of uncertainty has just clouded over the market. it's the wild wild west all over again and watch out b/c people are going to be scrambling around for year end funding.

the haircut schedule will be revised in the morning, there's no WAY that this is going to be the actual schedule.

Posted by , Dec 12, 2007 4:57PM

well why should they care, they can (will) just print money to cover the difference

Posted by Bernard Guerrero, Dec 12, 2007 5:02PM

it will pay 85 cents on the dollar for CDOs with no market price available. That sounds like a pretty sweet deal in today’s markets.

Wouldn't that be the whole point of the exercise?

Posted by Fed Watcher, Dec 12, 2007 5:02PM

We had to throw the moral hazard baby out with the bath water. Since a few subprime deadbeats are getting some relief, the big boys need it too, big time. Now, where's the year end rally?

Posted by Matt, Dec 12, 2007 5:06PM

Does the Fed have the mandate to do this sort of repo trades (as in with these assets as collateral)?

Posted by E-trade, Dec 12, 2007 5:11PM

I am betting E-trade wished they could have held out a couple more weeks!

Posted by jag, Dec 12, 2007 5:14PM

How long until Moody's/Fitch/S&P is forced to downgrade Treasuries?

Posted by , Dec 12, 2007 5:30PM

broker/dealers won't even use this anyway

Posted by , Dec 12, 2007 5:59PM

anyone with a balancesheet will be affected. to answer matt's question, the fed typically will do repos to inject liquidity into the market but repos are facilitated first to primary dealers, then to banks, then do other banks, and so on and so forth. they already did 42 day repos or something like that which went over year end, and I'd expect them to do more repos after the 10yr reopen tomorrow.

the problem with this TAF is that (collateral schedule aside) it's really just a drop in the pan and they're going to have to keep doing TAFs because the paper is still there and banks are will NOT fund this sh*t. After the downgrades are announced and the real haircuts are published we'll probably see another round of writedowns.

correct haircuts are going to be more like 80% ~ 90% haircuts for non-AAA assetbacks / private label sh*t so the Fed is going to pay 10 cents on the dollar and that's being conservative !!

Watch where 3Month Libor opens and where 1 year (EDfutures) trade. That is very key indicators of where the risk is headed.

Posted by , Dec 12, 2007 6:10PM

If the U.S. sovereign debt rating ever moved, it wouldn't be pretty.

Posted by Miss. Bernasty, Dec 12, 2007 6:12PM

Sweet, i have a pos SuperSenior off of a busted ABSCDO that is in EOD and about to be liquidated and i am gonna see 50c on the dollar but uncle Ben is gonna give me 85c on the dollar. Sold. let me go buy some more crap and stick it to you suck job taxpayers.

Posted by Anominous, Dec 12, 2007 6:28PM

ye gods. the Fed isn't -buying- anything. it is accepting collateral for 28-day loans at a certain price below par value. and the program is only scheduled to run through January--the Fed can get harsher on the big banks should it so desire.

the whole idea is to get the financial system to 1/1/08 without catastrophe. I endorse that. I've never been in a financial catastrophe and I have no desire to. we're probably headed for (or in) a recession and deepening it makes no sense whatsoever.

sure, the Fed is (again) bailing out the fat cats and confirming moral hazard. the fat cats have placed themselves in a position where if you stick it to them, you stick it to everyone. makes much more sense to whine about -that- than about the Fed.

Posted by E-trade, Dec 12, 2007 6:58PM

Yep, until they announce a new program in January...and February...and March...

Posted by , Dec 12, 2007 7:32PM

I agree with that, what the populists would call "the fat cats" are the entire financial system, it creates an especially severe moral hazard, as i'm sure these guys have read a couple Andrew Mellon/Ogden Mills biographies.

In that position how do you balance creating real consequences against the potential event of catastrophic dislocation of the financial markets?

As a relatively young and stable finance professional with a rebellious streak I say 'fuck all' and let them learn a lesson for the next 50 years, but what would your response be as a senior POTUS advisor with the reins in your hands? Ask yourself.

The obvious, professionally sound advice would be to stay sidelines during the slate gray shitstorm that is GW term II, but let's say you decided to serve...no monetary incentive - what's your play?

Posted by , Dec 12, 2007 8:03PM

This is awesome. The FED is practically paying my bonus this year.

Posted by , Dec 12, 2007 9:10PM

it's essentially a buy/sell back trade (collateralized loan) from the Fed. anyone who has traded through Y2K, asia crisis, russian default knows how hairy these things can get. the problem is wholly related to balance sheet issues. There is NO liquidity out there and the markets are stalling. This is why the Fed has to come up with this scam, I mean scheme, in the first place.

how can people stay on the sidelines if everyone's already drowning in it !??? don't think that it's just the "fat cats" problem, they're the ones that get to walk away from the table with a fat cat severance, the ones that get screwed are all the little analysts that have only been in the market for less than 5 years and have zero track record.

Posted by , Dec 12, 2007 9:15PM

also, anyone familiar with Basel II knows that if your balance sheet is not conservatively managed for year end you will pay dearly. risk capital charges are insane and those who are leveraged up to the max and have portfolios heavy in non-investment grade assets will not be in business.

Posted by , Dec 12, 2007 9:43PM

yes, but those 0-5 analysts eventually become (hate myself using this term) "fat cats" does it make sense to put a line in the sand and tell them what they can't pass? Or is the life lesson TBTF? Or, considering last cycle - YBGIBG.

Posted by ebenezer Scrooge, Dec 12, 2007 10:46PM

Hold up... you mean I might get a (short term hold) buyer for my non-AAA "unpriceable" assets? Hot diggity, I can originate everything that I haven't been able to with the new space on the BS. Hopefully wrap and sell that higher quality stuff that the commitee is letting thru these days. Then eventually stomach the write off on the non-AAA crap when I take it back because I at least have a bit of extra juice to take the bite out of the write off?

Damn I love the holiday season! Anything can happen. Moral hazard my azz, its just reaffirming if you hope hard enough anything can happen at this point in the year.

Posted by Anal_yst, Dec 12, 2007 11:56PM

@ 9:15 - haven't most of the western banks been putting off fully ratifying Basel II?

Which brings me to the next question (assuming of course the response to the above is 'yes), which is if in fact basel II was a global standard how would that have affected the current situation, hmm

Posted by Laid_off, Dec 13, 2007 1:17AM

At $0.85 for one month, what is the YTM on this paper? Expensive debt, no? What will the Fed do with this stuff if people don't pay in a month?

Posted by Mr. Brown, Dec 13, 2007 8:24AM

Someone correct me please - the Fed isn't actually purchasing anything, it is providing a loan to holders of collateral which means THEY NEED TO PAY IT BACK. This is a repo and not an outright purchase (at least not yet)?

Experience gained under this temporary program will be helpful in assessing the potential usefulness of augmenting the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy tools--open market operations and the primary credit facility--with a permanent facility for auctioning term discount window credit.

Posted by , Dec 13, 2007 8:54AM

Mr Brown - you are correct. the Fed is not buying it outright, they are providing an alternative to the discount window for these types of collateral.

Forget about the future, the whole point is that people have balance sheet issues heading into year end and if the Fed does not execute these two auctions smoothly...... where's my heart medication........

Posted by Cramer, Dec 13, 2007 9:18AM

OPEN THE DISCOUNT WINDOW! THEY KNOW NOTHING! THEY'RE SHAMEFUL!

Posted by Mr. Brown, Dec 13, 2007 9:22AM

YES, Discount window! I'll take the #6 with curly fries.

Speaking of which has anybody noticed the arbitrage opportunity at McDonald's (WBB, Where Baller's Ball)? 4 piece nuggets are $1 where the 6 piece is $2.99.....

Posted by mrpink, Dec 13, 2007 9:24AM

I like to arbitrage between the UES and the Goldman McDonalds. Prices sometimes fluctuate.

Posted by , Dec 13, 2007 9:58AM

It's only 40bn you dolts, not enough to move the needle.

Posted by , Dec 13, 2007 10:06AM

You guys are morons. This is almost the same thing as the discount window, except the rate is set by an auction rather than a predetermined discount rate. It's not like the Fed is going to get stuffed with a bunch of ABS CDOs all of a sudden.
The total of $64 billion in the TAF over the turn will offset other liquidity in the system, it is not new liquidity.

Posted by , Dec 13, 2007 11:49AM

10:06
the point genius is there IS no "other" liquidity in the system.

Posted by Mr. Brown, Dec 13, 2007 11:59AM

No Liquidity?? Are you serious? mrpink and myself are setting up our own repo operation with the proceeds from our Chicken Nugget arb. We have approximately $3.74 in cash (thank you homeless dude!) which if we leverage x100,000,000,000 equates to $374 Billion. In a couple of months people will be saying Subprime, is that some kind of undercooked steak??

Posted by 10:06, Dec 13, 2007 4:41PM

11:49
The Fed made clear that they intend to keep funds near target
over the maintenance period, therefore no new liquidity, it's just in a different form

Posted by measton, Dec 14, 2007 9:18AM

The real issue is that all of this will go on behind closed doors. The discount window was open, but banks couldn't intentionally default. That's what will happen now. Citi puts worthless SIV paper on it's books, then it will get a 60billion dollar loan using this paper as collateral. Then it will intentionally default. The FED in essence is purchasing SIV paper for 85 cents on the FANTASY price models. ie it is way over paying. The public will know nothing of this as it is done behind closed doors, with the FED guaranteeing annonymity. I'd like to take out a loan using my old lottery tickets that didn't win as collateral.

Posted by Booba, Dec 17, 2007 6:16PM

Pay to whom? This is a question!
Did you hear that bonuses on Wall St. will be just slightly lower than in previous year?

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