The Bush Bailout Arrives: Six Quick Thoughts

First of all, let’s call it what it is: a massive bailout.

Second, let’s see how it works: price controls.

Third, let’s not pretend that this thing will stay as small as it started. When was the last time a government program ever did that? With defaults accelerating in every type of residential mortgage, there will be intense pressure to expand the program. Recall that we’ll very likely have either Hillary Clinton or Barrack Obama in the White House next year, with Democrats continuing to control the House and Senate. Do you still think the parameter’s of the freeze won’t expand?

Fourth, let’s notice that the Bush administration is being just about as dishonest about this as they can get away with. They’re denying it’s a bailout. Denying it operates through price-controls. In fact, they’re denying they had any serious role at all. They just brought the parties to the table. The folks running the Wall Street Journal editorial board pretty much destroyed these lines this morning, before the details of this plan were even released.

Fifth, let’s stop pretending we actually know what the costs of the bailout will be. It’s going to take quite some time to learn exactly how this will all work out. But we’re none too satisfied that the folks putting this together have even asked the right questions much less arrived at persuasive answers. What’s the moral hazard risk that future homeowners will also look for government bailouts? What investors demand as the price for taking on the risk of a bailout in the future?

Sixth, can “Mortgages” be named Time Magazine's Person of the Year?

Bush Touts Subprime Plan Faulted for Coming Too Late [Bloomberg]

Comments

Posted by To The Hilt, Dec 06, 2007 4:57PM

If I stopped paying my credit card bills, enough that my FICO dropped below whatever level, would the government tell my landlord he can't raise my rent?

PS: Mike's Hard Lemonade.

Posted by , Dec 06, 2007 5:01PM

Quick question for Carnoutsie,

Was LTCM bailed out? If yes, was it a government bail out?

Posted by Please help me - I grew up >250 miles from either coast, Dec 06, 2007 5:04PM

This is why we need to elect Ron Paul. This never would've happened if he was president. The bots alerted me to this discussion board and once I was done banging my cousin, I put in some chew, started drinking the 'shine from the still out back rather than buy your fancy store-bought Mike's.

Posted by Please help me - I grew up >250 miles from either coast, Dec 06, 2007 5:06PM

This is why we need to elect Ron Paul. This never would've happened if he was president. The bots alerted me to this discussion board and once I was done banging my cousin, I put in some chew, started drinking the 'shine from the still out back rather than buy your fancy store-bought Mike's.

Posted by Anonymosity, Dec 06, 2007 5:13PM

A) there's nothing wrong with chew.

B) there's nothing wrong with moonshine.

C) is your cousin hot?

D) yes, I am from the South.

Posted by , Dec 06, 2007 5:28PM

1-800-995-HELP

Posted by , Dec 06, 2007 5:33PM

This plan sends one message loud and clear - BE IRRESPONSIBLE.

Here's an example. Lets say you had a FICO of 680 took out a 2/1 ARM 100% LTV on a house you could no way affford. Then you missed out on credit card payments etc and now your FICO is 600 and theres no way in hell you can afford the reset payments. Welcome to the bailout club - your teaser rate is frozen for 5 years (John Edwards would have liked 7).

Now lets say you were a FICO 580 borrower who REALLY wanted to improve and be responsible. Lets say you put 20% money down and bought a house you could afford. In the meantime, you made all payments and your FICO has gone up to 650. What happens to you now?

Timeout sucker!! Too bad you showed fiscal responsibility. No bailout for you.

This actually IS the plan. If your FICO went up by 10% since the mortgage or above 660 then you DONT get the bailout!!

The only people getting this bailout are those who took a no money down loan they could not afford and have not had any improvement in their FICOs ever since.

Go figure.

Posted by JP, Dec 06, 2007 5:35PM

I agree with to the Hilt. I just bought a place and, had I gotten an ARM, my alt-A credit isn't nearly bad enough to help me get the lower rate. I'd stop paying for 3-4 months, take a nice vacation with my savings, et voila! A free 5-year lock!

Posted by Yeehah !, Dec 06, 2007 5:37PM

Man, they must've scared the heck out of the POTUS to get him to promote this bailout!! Karl Rove and a puppet show probably worked to help Dubya understand while Dick Cheney dreamed of a role in the movie "Dune"and measured everyone's "stick".

Posted by , Dec 06, 2007 5:48PM

why stop at mortgages.....

how about credit cards, student loans, auto loans, lines of credit?? and all other forms of business that requires a contract to execute.

but only if the securities industry has built it's latest house of cards on them because if they have not then no one will care.

Fuck Hank Paulson and the horse he rode in on....

Posted by Satan, Real Estate Broker/Dealer, Dec 06, 2007 5:48PM

Hold on, dear reader. Whom will I get to buy my foreclosed properties after all the good credit, middling credit and poor credit candidates have all "bought" their homes, eh? Yes...the bad, bad credit candidate. I need those people bailed out. Those untrained real estate speculators who used their "home equity" to finance a huge house that some rich guy would later buy are in a hole so deep even I can hear them whining from my place. Music to my ears.

Posted by Yo!, Dec 06, 2007 6:08PM

A great incentive for smart people to kill their credit scores ASAP - what a wonderful idea!
The market would take care of the mortgage/real estate mess fairly quickly (and painfully). This bailout is only going to prolong the mess and pain. Honestly, prices will now take 3-5 years to normalize rather than the 1-2 the market would dictate. I don't know about you, but I like to grit my teeth and pull off bandaids quickly.
As much as I do think many of Ron Paul's supporters seem like a bunch of raving lunatic Scientologists, I do think this is the kind of government intervention madness RP would never support.

Posted by Lil Jon, Dec 06, 2007 6:39PM

Have any of you read the 'Framework'? Or do you get your info from CNBC/FBN/Dealbreaker?

Posted by Bernard Guerrero, Dec 06, 2007 6:53PM

Satan, as always, is correct. There _is_ moral hazard being created, but the rest of the system has reasons for wanting to see the dummies bailed out. i.e. Being in the process of selling my own place at the moment, I will feel their pain, whether I want to or not.

The Mexican peso crisis last decade might be a good analogy. Yes, offering the guarantees created moral hazard. But nobody had any interest in seeing Mexico go belly-up, net net. Up-front costs and ongoing risk do not mean a negative NPV.

Posted by Anon, Dec 06, 2007 7:01PM

Is it just me, or is everyone else missing where the true moral hazard has been created?
Segment 3 is my favorite. Get your REMIC guidelines out, you masters of the universe.

Posted by Lil Jon, Dec 06, 2007 7:13PM

Homos,

This makes it easier for servicers to workout/forebear/etc. problem loans. The noteholders will bear 100% of the cost of this.

Please pay attention.

Posted by Anonymous, Dec 06, 2007 9:18PM

Carney, the magnitude of this freeze is quite small, but the big one is reserved for the likes of Citibank. Paulson will lead the charge and end up with a Rubin like job there (after Rubin is gone).

Posted by Liverpudlian, Dec 06, 2007 11:11PM

That's it, this is bloody enough! End the mortgage interest deduction now....far too much has been made out of this "home ownership = the American dream" rubbish!

Posted by Private Banker, Dec 07, 2007 12:28AM

We are now operating like Bono and the World Bank. Interest has bad karma and we should forgive all debt because, hey, the borrower never looked at the f***ing loan doc anyway. What a joke response from this "conservative" administration. Paulson needs his head examined. PS Where's Greenspan and his 0% real interest rate? No discussion about that....wait, he's penning another dissertation on why his wife has that cushy job.

Posted by Black Lightning '52, Dec 07, 2007 12:28AM

I concur with Liverpudlian.

Tax incentives for going into debt is crap. Has always been crap, and remains crap.

Bush wanted a society of responsibility. He needs to rewind and listen to himself. Bail out = no responsibility.

Posted by uwsguy, Dec 07, 2007 12:49AM

I see a large number of people opposing the bailout of financially reckless consumers. I think it’s time for us to take a stand and show those in politic our power in dollar. Nothing will scare these politicians more if we stop shopping all together. After all, we are the only ones left with some free cash to spend, right? So let’s forego all our Christmas spendings this year. If you have already bought something, return them. Explain to your kids – make it a civic lesson on the important of making your voice and opinion heard in a democratic society. There will be Christmas next year and the year after. Let this be the year we show those in politics that if they spend more of our tax dollars to bailout undeserving people, we will spend even less to make up for the cost of their bad policy. Let vote with what we have the most and what the government is trying to take from us to give it to the others – our dollars. If enough of us do this, it will show up in the retail sales number and that would really teach those pandering politicians a lesson. Help spread the words.

Posted by with frozen arms, Dec 07, 2007 6:32AM

Here's what the "freeze" is all about:

PSA
FICO
LTV
REMIC
REMIC Trustee
Q Status
IRS
SFAS 140
IRS 860D
SEC
The ASF
NIM insurer
rating agencies
default
foreclosure
HPA outlook

In other words, the big boys wanted the government to review what they wanted to do anyway so they don't get sent to court by investors or the tax man catches them and sends them a tax bill.

Mortgage mods are legal, not liable, if done under certain rules. The freeze just tries to make sure everyone is on the same page. That's why it will only be "fast tracked" to those not in default, but where default is reasonably foreseeable. Others might be able to refinance and they will be sent in that route. And others who are in default already will be handled the old fashioned way.

Posted by , Dec 07, 2007 7:31AM

"The servicer will not take any action that is prohibited by the PSA"

so no harm, no foul, right? the contract is upheld, this is so far just a big marketing ploy to get these people to actually pick up the phone and get sme help instead of letting the house fall into disrepair and then defaulting.. . u

Posted by TheUnrepentantGunner, Dec 07, 2007 9:06AM

I dont see how "Fiscally Conservative" and "George Bush" can ever be considered part of the same sentence again.

A disgrace.

Whenever we do take a fall, it will be a mighty hard one.

People hoping to be bullish on the dollar can take those hopes and light them on fire, once we learn the full cost of the bailout.

Does anyone know some unhedged foreign funds out there that they are in love with ATM?

Heck, I think the new "fixed" portion of my portfolio wont be fixed at all. It's going to be the FXA, FXB, FXC FXF, and MAYBE even the FXE, as much as Joe hates it.

Posted by , Dec 07, 2007 3:47PM

Bailout? Huh? Do you get your news from the Today Show?

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